Polymarket is pricing this contract at 12¢ (12% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz for any single date between market creation and December 31, 2026, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least the number specified in the title.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12¢ | 12% | $0 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz for any single date between market creation and December 31, 2026, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least the number specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. IMF PortWatch typically publishes a rounded 7-day moving average in the chart on its chokepoint page and an unrounded figure in its downloadable files. The figure shown in the chart will be used for settlement. If the chart is unavailable, the downloadable figure, rounded to the nearest whole number, will be used. This market will resolve once IMF PortWatch has published data for every date in the period. Revisions made after that point will not be considered, unless subject to the data integrity clause below. If any data is still unpublished 14 calendar days after the period’s final date, this market will resolve on the most recent data published at that time. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data