Polymarket is pricing this contract at 3¢ (3% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 3¢ | 3% | $30K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge's decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as he is held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: - Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) - Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant - Being formally booked or processed following detention - Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station - Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with his attorney - Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention: - An arrest warrant being issued but not executed - Being questioned or interviewed without arrest - Being named in an indictment without arrest The pr