Polymarket is pricing this contract at 88¢ (88% implied probability). Resolves July 29, 2026. As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is July 29, 2026.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 88¢ | 88% | $5K |
As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is July 29, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for Outlook Therapeutics's ONS-5010 as a treatment for wet age-related macular degeneration by August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application The following constitute qualifying approvals: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access