Polymarket is pricing this contract at 26¢ (26% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2028. This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether a Chinese company has the top-ran
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 26¢ | 26% | $2K |
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether a Chinese company has the top-ranked model on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard by the end of 2027. Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("China #1 AI" or "China not #1"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No". Chinese AI model: This component is "China #1 AI" if a Chinese company owns the model ranked first on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the leaderboard is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it is "China not #1". Results from the "Rank" section under the &q