Polymarket is pricing this contract at 14¢ (14% implied probability). Resolves January 1, 2029. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada has officially been admitted to join the European Union as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14¢ | 14% | $5K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada has officially been admitted to join the European Union as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Canada will be considered to have officially been admitted to join the European Union as a full member state on the date that all required parties and EU member-states have signed and ratified an accession treaty or other legally binding instrument admitting Canada as a member state of the European Union. Membership subject to opt-outs, derogations, or transition periods on specific EU policies will qualify, provided Canada is admitted as a member state of the European Union under a signed and ratified accession treaty. Associate membership, the proposed "Alliance for the Future", and any other associate, partner, or affiliate status short of full membership will not qualify. Candidate status, the opening or conclusion of accession negotiations, and any other stage of the accession process short of a signed and ratified accession treaty will not qualify. Membership in the European Economic Area, a customs union with the European Union, a