Polymarket is pricing this contract at 18¢ (18% implied probability). Resolves November 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 18¢ | 18% | $232 |
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).