StreetSpread · Technology · Polymarket

Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

Technology Resolves August 31, 2026 Polymarket

Polymarket is pricing this contract at 3¢ (3% implied probability). Resolves August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Live price

PlatformCentsImpliedVolume
Polymarket3%$151

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company

Trade on Polymarket →
Don't just watch the number
StreetSpread aggregates real-time odds across Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and Fanatics. Prices update every ~30 seconds via WebSocket. Back to live tracker · Join the app waitlist.

Follow us: X (@thestreetspread) · Instagram (@thestreetspread) · LinkedIn