Polymarket is pricing this contract at 5¢ (5% implied probability). Resolves August 4, 2026. The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
| Platform | Cents | Implied | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5¢ | 5% | $28 |
The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote coun