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Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Politics Resolves October 25, 2027 350 days to close Cross-platform

Kalshi prices this contract at 58¢, while Polymarket has it at 64¢. That's a 5.0¢ spread between the two prediction markets. Resolves October 25, 2027 (~350 days). A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Argentina on October 24, 2027.

The two prediction markets disagree by 5.0¢ on this contract — that's a meaningful divergence worth investigating.

Live prices

PlatformCentsImpliedVolume
Kalshi58¢58%$11K
Polymarket64¢64%$7K

Resolution criteria

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more can

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